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MIT Model Shows Connecticut’s COVID-19 Peak is Near
April 23, 2020
As predicted by tracking algorithms designed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Connecticut is in sight and might be less pronounced than originally feared.
Dr. Ajay Kumar, chief clinical officer at Hartford HealthCare, said the “good news” is that residents’ adherence to state social distancing and stay-at-home guidelines, as well as Hartford HealthCare’s early decision to restrict visitors to its acute care hospitals and nursing homes and to use telehealth for patient visits seems to have worked and “flattened” the peak at a point that is lower than predicted.
“We are anticipating the peak to be April 26 or 27 in Connecticut,” Dr. Kumar told reporters Thursday, adding that the date will fluctuate by a day or two as the virus moves across the state. He believes infections have already peaked, for example, in Fairfield County but may not reach the peak in eastern Connecticut until May 3 or 4.
Hitting the peak, however, does not mean a quick drop in hospitalizations or people needing to protect themselves from COVID-19 infection, Dr. Kumar said. Rather, he said, he anticipates the descent will be drawn out.
“This is a long process.,” he said. “(It won’t be) a sudden drop, more like a plateauing and it will all depend on how we continue social distancing, testing and tracking. For the first week or two after the peak, it will be a plateau with very small decreases (in infection) across the state. “And, there is the risk for it coming back.”
The other positive news Dr. Kumar offered was the fact that there have been 11 people who recovered from COVID-19 and donated what’s called convalescent plasma to help those who are still in critical condition with the disease. Some of the plasma recipients, he reported, have been improving and several have been taken off their ventilators. He did caution that, without more data, the effect of the plasma transfusions is still largely uncertain.
“We need more data and to be more scientific,” he said. “But the early indications seem to be positive.”
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